Comprehensive referee assignment pattern analysis • Identifying statistical anomalies in officiating distribution
This website provides comprehensive statistical analysis of Premier League referee assignment patterns across multiple seasons. Using the "Duckybusters" methodology, we track referee-team encounters to measure both frequency and pace of accumulation. The analysis identifies patterns that deviate significantly from expected random distribution, providing predictive metrics that show prior encounters before each match. Our goal is to bring transparency and data-driven scrutiny to officiating assignments in professional football.
Reffymandering (noun): The practice of systematically assigning referees to matches in a pattern that produces statistically significant deviations from random distribution, potentially influencing competitive outcomes. Named by analogy to gerrymandering—the manipulation of electoral boundaries for political advantage—the term describes situations where the assignment process, whether intentional or not, results in certain referees officiating specific teams with suspicious frequency that exceeds reasonable statistical expectations.
Select an analysis tool to explore referee assignment patterns for the 2025-26 Premier League season (Matchweeks 1-12):
RCM - Assignment Summary
Complete matrix showing how many times each referee has officiated matches involving each club. Color-coded frequency indicators highlight normal (green), concerning (orange), and extreme (red) assignment patterns.
COS - Team-Level Analysis
Statistical breakdown by club showing distribution of referee encounters. Identifies which teams experience the most dubious assignment patterns (5+ encounters with same referee) and tracks percentage of normal vs. extreme frequencies.
RAD - Referee-Level Analysis
Analyzes each referee's assignment patterns showing how many teams they've officiated at each frequency level. Reveals which referees have the most balanced assignments versus those with concentrated exposure to specific clubs.
GRP - Weekly Analysis
Interactive gameweek preview showing all matches with referee assignments and prior encounter counts. Provides predictive "Referee Footprint" analysis measuring exposure before each match begins. Includes referee distribution statistics.
RGO - REFEREE LEVEL ANALYSIS
This table provides a performance breakdown of each individual referee based on the final **Game Outcomes Statistics (GOS)** for matches they officiate. It moves beyond assignment patterns to analyze the results themselves, such as home/away win rates, goal differentials, and major disciplinary actions. By comparing a referee's GOS to the league average, this analysis can potentially reveal subtle biases or external **influence of the home crowd** pressure, or other non-random elements on the referee's decision-making and the resulting match outcomes.
This analysis uses the "twice per season" standard as the ideal baseline for referee-team encounters. Frequencies of 5+ are flagged as "dubious" and warrant scrutiny. The system tracks both absolute counts and pace of accumulation, with early-season concentration patterns considered more problematic than end-season totals.
Untold Arsenal
Data through Matchweek 12 • Season 2025-26 • Updated 2025-11-16 (Template Date)
Promoting transparency and accountability in Premier League officiating